There is something profoundly important about knowing where we fit. And while we are constantly negotiating that — with ourselves or others — maintaining an honest perspective is essential. Want to understand where we truly fit? Watch this. It’s very moving.
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The idea of horizon thinking is really quite simple. It is simply moving from the here and now out to the horizon, and then sharing what you see with those you lead or serve. A simple and powerful idea, yes, but not easy to do.
The power of horizon thinking is that it helps you look beyond the present — time or location — and chart a path to the future. If you are guiding clients or individuals in your organization who have some important decisions to make, being able to give them a confident view of the future is of extraordinary value. But the challenge rests in the word confident — and I’ll come back to that shortly.
First, let’s look at horizon thinking from the perspective of building a business. Some businesses are so ”here and now”, that looking into the future is mostly dismissed. For example, barber shops don’t typically require a lot of horizon thinking. Now, I’m not just saying that because I’m bald. I’m saying that because the success of the business is not typically driven by constant innovation.
At the other end of the continuum, are businesses that are driven constantly by changes in technology, markets, or production models. Think of software developers or advanced electronics companies who are not only rushing headlong into the next quarter for their next launch, but are also trying to discern the directions that advanced mathematics, robotics, physics, etc. are going to take in order to establish a development trajectory that will help them succeed. Horizon thinking for these organizations is a must — they simply have to be looking into the future and charting a course from the present.
But I’d like to look at businesses and opportunities that fall between these two extremes — mostly because the majority of companies exist here. There are many businesses or industries that continue for some time without much change and then one organization will identify a whole new way to think about how business is done. Their market may not be accustomed to looking to that company to help identify what the future will look like. But if you do lead them in a new direction, great opportunities may be in store.
Unlike the physical horizon where you can go and literally “see” what is beyond, horizon thinking is plagued with ambiguity. So many possible futures exist and so many different factors are at work on those possible futures, that it can be very difficult to see with confidence.
In effect, you can face two possible extremes. In one case, you can’t see anything clearly. Now, this has a certain value in and of itself. Recognizing that the future you are testing is not comprised of a few clear options tells you something about the complexity, rate of change, or novelty of the future you are exploring. Conversely, if you face many clear choices, either selecting a few or developing options to prepare for all of them can become difficult very quickly.
Part of the challenge for horizon thinking is making sure you don’t go over the horizon and out of sight from those you hope to guide. Once you’re out of sight, you lose your connection. What you are describing no longer has relevance to those you’re hoping to lead. You, in fact, are the connection between a future that you can see, and the reality in which people already exist.
What’s difficult about this is that the future is so inviting and enticing. There is a strong magnetism that pulls us further and further. As a result, there is a constant tension to horizon thinking and a necessity to know where you are relative to those you lead or serve.
Everyone tells you this, but if you get it wrong here, you’re done. And here’s why. The horizon is relative. What you think is the horizon is not necessarily what your market thinks is the horizon (in fact, I can practically guarantee it). And if you’re looking at two different things, you’ve got a problem. Let me explain.
The distance to the horizon depends on how tall you are (more accurately, how high your eyes are above the ground). Think of it this way. If you’re six feet tall, the horizon is about 5 kms away. If you’re looking out of a say a 10-story building, you can see much further and the horizon you see is closer to 15 kms away. In an airplane cruising at 39,000 feet, the horizon is almost 400 kms away. (It’s simple geometry and I’m happy to go into it if you like — just send me a note). You get what I mean.
Now, think of it in terms of your market. If you’re a visionary thinker you may be in the airplane looking out great distances. But if your market is not in the plane, what you describe will have no frame of reference for them. And if they can’t connect with what you’re trying to describe, they’re not going to follow you. Likewise, if you’re standing where they’re standing, you can’t exactly paint a picture of an exciting future that will mobilize them to move — because you will all still be in the same spot. But if you can see their horizon and a little beyond that, and if you can help them to understand what you see, then you have a chance to lead them to a place they have never been before.
Ultimately, you’re trying to look into the future and then take your customers with you. You’re trying to look beyond “here and now” to see “there and soon” without losing anyone in the process (in fact, you want to bring more people with you than you already have). But this is all about judgment and timing. If you are wrong about the horizon your market can see then you have a serious problem. If your clients are not ready to see the future, then you have another problem. And if they don’t believe what you tell them … yeah, another problem. Tread carefully.
- t
I was asked by the Department of Foreign Affairs if I would be willing to speak at the African Centre for the Research and Study of Terrorism in Algiers, Algeria on how to identify and effectively secure critical infrastructure. This African Union initiative brought together senior leaders from the intelligence, military, and law enforcement communities of 53 African nations. This was my first trip to Africa and it was great. There are some extremely dedicated inviduals working to fight terrorism there. And they have no small task either.
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) invited me to speak on behalf of the Conference Board on the topic of building effective public-private partnerships to combat terrorism. This meeting was held in Vienna, Austria in the spring of 2007 and included representation from most European nations. My presentation focused on providing perspectives and case studies that focused on the fundamental principles that underlie effective public-private partnerships. (Oh, and it was right after Condeleezza Rice spoke. How cool is that?)
I lived in India for a time. And few people go to India without visiting the Taj Mahal. Rest assured, it lives up to its billing. Absolutely breath-taking. (Am I the only one that finds that Kilroy disturbing?)
I’ve had the chance to do some amazing things in my life. In December 2006, I was asked to speak at the G8 in Russia on establishing effective governance for public-private partnerships designed to counter terrorism.
This was a major event and Canada played a lead role in the development of the recommendations and declarations that emerged from this forum.
Based on the discussions in Russia, it’s become clear that the work we are doing in Canada, and the issues that Canadian organizations are facing as it relates to governance in national security and public safety, are not unique. These are common issues that nations around the world are working to address.
Travis Allison is a close friend and a gifted photographer (among a bout a million other things). In 2008 he took some photos of our family and this the result. Thanks again Travis.
